Decision-making under deep uncertainty in the drinking water sector – exploring (DAPP) Multirisk Pathways as a methodology

Dealing with deep uncertainty

Various drinking water companies have gained experience with methods to deal with deep uncertainty, but have found that these are limited in applicability in a context with multiple simultaneous threats across multiple interacting sectors. Recently, a method has been developed that makes it possible to develop and evaluate adaptation strategies in such situations: DAPP-MR (multi-risk) (Schlumberger, 2022, 2024). However, this method has not yet been tested in the Dutch drinking water context.

DAPP-MR for a Dutch case study

In this project, we apply the DAPP-MR method to a real and representative case in the Dutch drinking water context. Previous research has shown that a purely model-based approach is not sufficient to deal with deep uncertainty. The need for the integral organization of complex collaborative planning processes is becoming increasingly important due to the limited space in the Netherlands and challenges such as water scarcity. Therefore, in this project, we involve various stakeholders in the DAPP-MR process to come up with effective adaptation measures. The process is designed to learn about decision-making in deep uncertainty, the attitudes and behaviors it entails, and to better understand the relationships and dependencies that exist between the actions of different stakeholders. In a parallel trajectory, the necessary models and tools are investigated/developed to support this process.

Applicability of DAPP-MR

This project aims to provide the Waterwijs partners with familiarity in decision-making under deep uncertainty. The application of DAPP-MR to a case study results in an assessment of this method on drinking water issues.